“One can’t predict the weather more than a few days in advance.”
- January 8, 1942 – March 14, 2018
- British
- Theoretical physicist, science writer
- Announced the black hole singularity theorem and Hawking radiation, and contributed to the popularization of science with his book “Talking about the Universe”
Quote
“One can’t predict the weather more than a few days in advance.”
Explanation
In this quote, Stephen Hawking highlights the limits of predictability in complex systems, such as weather. The statement reflects the well-known chaos theory, which suggests that in many natural systems, including weather patterns, small changes in initial conditions can lead to dramatically different outcomes. This phenomenon is what makes weather prediction so challenging. While short-term forecasts (a few days ahead) can be relatively accurate, the further out predictions are made, the more uncertainty arises due to the sensitivity of the system to initial conditions. In essence, the weather behaves in a nonlinear, chaotic manner, meaning that even slight uncertainties can compound and create large errors in longer-term forecasts.
Hawking’s remark is not just about weather, but also about the fundamental nature of prediction in complex systems. It serves as a metaphor for the challenges that arise in predicting other phenomena, such as the behavior of the universe or the evolution of life. Just as we cannot predict the weather with absolute certainty beyond a few days, certain aspects of the universe are inherently unpredictable or uncertain, as seen in quantum mechanics and other fields of science.
Furthermore, this statement underscores the distinction between deterministic systems, where the future can theoretically be predicted if we know the present in full detail, and chaotic systems, where even small errors in measurement can lead to large deviations over time. While long-term weather prediction may be limited by these principles, Hawking’s own work in cosmology dealt with understanding the broader laws of physics that govern the universe, acknowledging that while we may not always have the ability to predict specific events, we can still uncover underlying patterns and principles that help us understand the natural world.
