“The root of all superstition is that men observe when a thing hits, but not when it misses.”
- January 22, 1561 – April 9, 1626
- Born in England
- Philosopher, theologian, jurist, politician, aristocrat
- Proposed the “inductive method” that laid the foundations of modern science, and influenced later generations as the founder of British empiricism
Quote
“The root of all superstition is that men observe when a thing hits, but not when it misses.”
Explanation
In this quote, Francis Bacon highlights a key flaw in human thinking that often gives rise to superstition: people tend to notice and remember the moments when a certain event or action seems to produce a desired outcome (“hits”), but they ignore or fail to account for the instances when the same event or action does not lead to the desired result (“misses”). This selective attention and confirmation bias make individuals wrongly associate cause and effect, believing that certain actions or rituals are responsible for success or failure, even when there is no real connection. Bacon’s insight suggests that superstition arises from this faulty observation and interpretation of events, where people attribute meaning to coincidences rather than seeking out more rational or empirical explanations.
Bacon’s view aligns with the Renaissance and Scientific Revolution approach to understanding the world, which emphasized the importance of empirical observation, reasoning, and skepticism toward irrational beliefs. During this time, thinkers began to recognize that understanding the world requires careful observation and an awareness of patterns, without jumping to conclusions based on isolated events or incomplete data. Bacon, a philosopher and scientist, advocated for a methodical approach to uncovering the truth—one that considers both successes and failures in order to form a more accurate understanding.
In modern times, Bacon’s quote remains relevant, particularly in the context of psychology and critical thinking. We still see the tendency for superstition or confirmation bias in many areas of life—whether in sports, health, or even finance—where people place undue importance on events that seem to confirm their beliefs, while overlooking the countless instances where their beliefs do not hold true. Bacon’s insight encourages us to engage in more objective, scientific thinking, recognizing that real understanding comes from carefully analyzing both positive and negative outcomes, rather than being swayed by random events or coincidences.
